Prediction Markets

Predictions is the newest addition to the BetJordan sportsbook, sitting in its own tab alongside Popular, Live and Upcoming. Nothing here is about a match result. These are markets on things that have not happened yet, and some of them stay open for days. Two categories are running. Weather asks how hot it gets in ten cities around the world, from Toronto to Tokyo. Sport asks where a player signs next, with a price on every club in the frame. It all runs on the account and the balance you already have. Open the tab and the markets are there.

How a prediction market works

Each market asks one question and gives you a list of possible answers. You bet Yes or No on any answer in that list. Each one carries its own price. A Yes on a likely outcome pays little. A Yes on an unlikely one pays a lot, because it rarely comes in. Sometimes the No side shows a dash instead of a price. That means No is not available on that outcome and you can only back Yes.

Weather markets

The weather markets ask the same thing each time. What is the highest temperature in a given city on a given day? Ten cities are covered:

Amsterdam	Beijing
Helsinki	London
Los Angeles	Madrid
Munich	Sao Paulo
Tokyo	Toronto

The answers come as bands. The first is open-ended, like 20°C or below. After that they narrow to single degrees, or to two-degree steps depending on the city. Units follow the city. European and Asian cities are listed in Celsius. Los Angeles is listed in Fahrenheit, in bands like 79°F or below and 80–81°F. Each card shows when it settles. Most are due at 15:00, either the next day or two days out.

Sport markets

The sport category currently runs one market type: Next Team. The question is where a named player will transfer. The answers are clubs, each with its own Yes and No price. Take a squad player linked with several clubs. One destination might sit at short odds because the move is widely reported. The rest sit long, because they are not. You are betting on a single named club, not on whether the player moves at all. These markets settle on a fixed date shown on the card, not on the day a transfer is announced.

Reading the prices

European decimal odds are the default across the site. You can change the format at the bottom of the page. In decimal odds, your return is your stake multiplied by the price, stake included. Bet €10 at 2.00 and a winning bet returns €20, which is your 10 back plus 10 in winnings. Long prices are worth understanding before you bet one. A price of 100.0 is not a bigger prize on a similar bet. It is the market saying that outcome almost never happens. Most bets at that price lose.

Placing a prediction bet

Open the Predictions tab in the sportsbook. Filter by All, Weather or Sport. Weather also lets you filter by city. Pick an outcome and click Yes or No. The selection goes to your bet slip. Enter your stake and confirm. If Quick Bet is on, your selection is placed straight away using settings you chose earlier. That skips the bet slip, which is the step where you would normally check what you are backing. Turn it on only if you do not want that check.

Settlement

Every card shows its settlement date and time before you bet. Read it. This is the part that separates predictions from a normal match bet. A football bet is done in 90 minutes. A prediction on a transfer can sit open for days, and your stake sits with it.

Responsible gaming

Prediction markets have a particular trap in them, and it is worth naming. They feel like opinions rather than bets. You know the weather. You follow the transfer window. It reads like a question you happen to know the answer to, which makes it easy to bet more, and more often, than you would on a football match. It is not that. The temperature in Munich on Friday is not something you can work out, and neither is where a player signs. These are bets with prices attached, the same as any other. Two things follow from that. The markets refresh daily, so there is always a new one. And a stake sitting open for two days is money you have already spent, even though nothing has happened yet. Set a deposit limit before you start. You choose the amount, daily, weekly or monthly, in your personal settings. There is also a cooling-off period of 24 hours, 48 hours or 7 days, and a temporary suspension of 30, 60 or 90 days. Self-exclusion covers every account under our licence. Any change you make takes 24 hours to take effect. The self-assessment test gives you a picture of how you are betting. For support away from us, we link to Gambling Therapy, Gamblers Anonymous and BIÖG (formerly BZgA). You must be 18 to bet.

FAQ

What are prediction markets?

They are bets on an outcome that is not a match result. At BetJordan that means the highest temperature in a city on a given day, or which club a player transfers to next.

Which cities have weather markets?

Ten: Amsterdam, Beijing, Helsinki, London, Los Angeles, Madrid, Munich, Sao Paulo, Tokyo and Toronto.

Why is Los Angeles in Fahrenheit?

The units follow the city. Los Angeles is listed in Fahrenheit and the other cities in Celsius, so each market reads the way local temperatures are normally reported.

Why can I only bet Yes on some outcomes?

When the No side shows a dash, that price is not being offered on that outcome. You can still back Yes.

When do prediction bets settle?

Each card shows its own settlement date and time. Weather markets usually settle a day or two out. Transfer markets carry a fixed date on the card.

Can I combine predictions with other bets?

Selections go to the same bet slip as the rest of the sportsbook.